Bullen- und Bärenmärkte
Buy the Dip - In Bullenmärkten bildet der S&P in der esrten Handelsstunde oftmals ein Tief.
Sell the Rip - In Bärenmarkten bildet der S&P in der ersten Handelsstunde oftmals ein Hoch.
Vix- und Options-Expirations-Weeks
Castaway-Trader
$ES On that chart you can see :
- the black line is OPEX Fridays, and
- the purple line is VIX options expiration dates
Note how those clusters happen either at the top or bottom of swings.
ES is at a cluster of two lines. OPEX Friday is today. VIX expiration is next Wed.
Because $SPX and $NDX options expire on Friday morning this is when the bullish seasonality of an OPEX week comes to end. Big guys do not need to support prices anymore because the bulk part of the puts they wrote to the public would expire worthless by Friday morning.
Vix_Opex_Exp.jpg (Größe: 43,12 KB / Downloads: 17)
CastAwayTrader
@CastAwayTrader
·
21h
$ES Under the 1999-2000 fractal we should see weakness in S&P during the OPEX week and bears testing the Yearly Support 2024 = 4,682.
read my weekend update posted for subscribers
https://castawaytrader.com/2024/01/15/sp-
Tradetechniken
1/2 Posi. am Ende einer 3 eines PBs in Trends
EW-Analyse:
Intermarket-Analyse
Zusammenführen/Synchronisieren verschiedener Counts über Assetklassen hinweg:
-> Komplettierung unterschiedlicher Muster gibt Bestätigung für Wendepunkte.
Aber auch bereits in der Entstehung der Muster helfen Vergleiche der Strukturen "korrelierter"/verwandter Werte bei der Wahl des
"geeigneten" Counts
Rohstoff-Währungen cad, aud bei Rohstoff-Hausse
ic ishares energy global Index - >200 Energie-Werte mit WTI
How to begin
Check Marktparameter und -technik gewünschter Basiswert:
Durchschnitte: 200, 50, 21 EMA, daily oftmals SMA50 daily
Pivots
Trends, seitwärts, Chop
Volatilität, ATR, Standardabweichung von EMA
Divergenzen, überkaufte, überverkaufte Märkte
Zeitebenen, Kombination derselben
David Starr
We are still seeing warning signs flashing for U.S. equities. However, warnings do not tell us that the advance is over. They tell us that when we do see signs of a top, that it could be a serious one. But for now, we haven’t seen a top materialize, so this isn’t something to act on yet.
Neil Yeager - former Simpler Trading
Dax: nach starkem Montag häufig auch starker Dienstag..
Marktverhalten nach Zinserhöhungen
P. Goodburn 18.9.: Fed senkt Zinsen um 50 Basispunkte
Analysts are conducting an autopsy of the Fed’s 50bps rate cut as consensus expectations rise that rising inflationary pressures are dead and buried and a new easing cycle has begun. Historical precedent shows that equites typically rally following the first Fed cut but only if there’s no recession. Deutsche Bank says ‘if we have an easing cycle and no recession then markets tend to fly. In fact, at just under 2 years after such cycles the median move has been almost +50% higher. S&P 500 at 8450 in late 2026 anyone?’. The Fed has cut rates with stocks near all-time highs 20 times since the 1980’s – and the S&P 500 was higher a year later 20 times giving a 100% performance (Carson). A price advance to 8450.00+/- seems unlikely even to our bullish EW medium-term upside targets of 7358.00+/- which means either the ending-diagonal forecast as intermediate wave (5) from the pandemic low is incorrect, or a recession will begin sometime next year. The ending/expanding-diagonal pattern (see fig #1, report dt. Aug.16th) depicts a deep 4th wave correction once 6374.00+/- has ended the 3rd wave sometime next year. A decline of around -36% per cent would certainly fit the profile of a recession although there’s still a lot of upside to 6374.00+/- beforehand. Shorter-term, stock indices both in the U.S. and Europe are expected to pull lower into a correction during the next couple of weeks ahead of a final upside test into an October peak.
Buy the Dip - In Bullenmärkten bildet der S&P in der esrten Handelsstunde oftmals ein Tief.
Sell the Rip - In Bärenmarkten bildet der S&P in der ersten Handelsstunde oftmals ein Hoch.
Vix- und Options-Expirations-Weeks
Castaway-Trader
$ES On that chart you can see :
- the black line is OPEX Fridays, and
- the purple line is VIX options expiration dates
Note how those clusters happen either at the top or bottom of swings.
ES is at a cluster of two lines. OPEX Friday is today. VIX expiration is next Wed.
Because $SPX and $NDX options expire on Friday morning this is when the bullish seasonality of an OPEX week comes to end. Big guys do not need to support prices anymore because the bulk part of the puts they wrote to the public would expire worthless by Friday morning.
Vix_Opex_Exp.jpg (Größe: 43,12 KB / Downloads: 17)
CastAwayTrader
@CastAwayTrader
·
21h
$ES Under the 1999-2000 fractal we should see weakness in S&P during the OPEX week and bears testing the Yearly Support 2024 = 4,682.
read my weekend update posted for subscribers
https://castawaytrader.com/2024/01/15/sp-
Tradetechniken
1/2 Posi. am Ende einer 3 eines PBs in Trends
EW-Analyse:
Intermarket-Analyse
Zusammenführen/Synchronisieren verschiedener Counts über Assetklassen hinweg:
-> Komplettierung unterschiedlicher Muster gibt Bestätigung für Wendepunkte.
Aber auch bereits in der Entstehung der Muster helfen Vergleiche der Strukturen "korrelierter"/verwandter Werte bei der Wahl des
"geeigneten" Counts
Rohstoff-Währungen cad, aud bei Rohstoff-Hausse
ic ishares energy global Index - >200 Energie-Werte mit WTI
How to begin
Check Marktparameter und -technik gewünschter Basiswert:
Durchschnitte: 200, 50, 21 EMA, daily oftmals SMA50 daily
Pivots
Trends, seitwärts, Chop
Volatilität, ATR, Standardabweichung von EMA
Divergenzen, überkaufte, überverkaufte Märkte
Zeitebenen, Kombination derselben
David Starr
We are still seeing warning signs flashing for U.S. equities. However, warnings do not tell us that the advance is over. They tell us that when we do see signs of a top, that it could be a serious one. But for now, we haven’t seen a top materialize, so this isn’t something to act on yet.
Neil Yeager - former Simpler Trading
Dax: nach starkem Montag häufig auch starker Dienstag..
Marktverhalten nach Zinserhöhungen
P. Goodburn 18.9.: Fed senkt Zinsen um 50 Basispunkte
Analysts are conducting an autopsy of the Fed’s 50bps rate cut as consensus expectations rise that rising inflationary pressures are dead and buried and a new easing cycle has begun. Historical precedent shows that equites typically rally following the first Fed cut but only if there’s no recession. Deutsche Bank says ‘if we have an easing cycle and no recession then markets tend to fly. In fact, at just under 2 years after such cycles the median move has been almost +50% higher. S&P 500 at 8450 in late 2026 anyone?’. The Fed has cut rates with stocks near all-time highs 20 times since the 1980’s – and the S&P 500 was higher a year later 20 times giving a 100% performance (Carson). A price advance to 8450.00+/- seems unlikely even to our bullish EW medium-term upside targets of 7358.00+/- which means either the ending-diagonal forecast as intermediate wave (5) from the pandemic low is incorrect, or a recession will begin sometime next year. The ending/expanding-diagonal pattern (see fig #1, report dt. Aug.16th) depicts a deep 4th wave correction once 6374.00+/- has ended the 3rd wave sometime next year. A decline of around -36% per cent would certainly fit the profile of a recession although there’s still a lot of upside to 6374.00+/- beforehand. Shorter-term, stock indices both in the U.S. and Europe are expected to pull lower into a correction during the next couple of weeks ahead of a final upside test into an October peak.